Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 26 | 23.0 | 10.8% | 277 | 2.41% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 28.0 | 13.4% | 342 | 2.51% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 39.7 | 19.2% | 491 | 2.35% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 41.4 | 20.4% | 522 | 3.84% |
| 40-49 | 31 | 27.9 | 13.3% | 341 | 3.26% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 23.6 | 11.3% | 288 | 2.29% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 15.0 | 7% | 179 | 1.56% |
| 70+ | 10 | 10.6 | 4.6% | 117 | 1.12% |
| All ages | 189 | 209.4 | 100% | 2559 | 2.45% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | 26878 | 71403 | 656 | 171 | 3430 |
| Jan 22 | 27084 | 71560 | 657 | 171 | 3155 |
| Jan 23 | 27238 | 71659 | 657 | 171 | 2729 |
| Jan 24 | 27460 | 71826 | 659 | 171 | 2617 |
| Jan 25 | 27603 | 72016 | 661 | 171 | 2580 |
| Jan 26 | 27857 | 72145 | 663 | 171 | 2574 |
| Jan 27 | 28046 | 72219 | 663 | 171 | 2559 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | 16878 | 41073 | 646 | 156 | 2029 |
| Jan 22 | 17004 | 41150 | 649 | 156 | 1746 |
| Jan 23 | 17088 | 41213 | 649 | 156 | 1491 |
| Jan 24 | 17279 | 41356 | 651 | 158 | 1512 |
| Jan 25 | 17378 | 41444 | 653 | 158 | 1514 |
| Jan 26 | 17517 | 41545 | 653 | 160 | 1561 |
| Jan 27 | 17602 | 41587 | 653 | 160 | 1532 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 12.1 | 9.5% | 145 | 1.87% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 16.3 | 13.1% | 201 | 2.39% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 18.4 | 14.6% | 224 | 3.15% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 25.1 | 19.7% | 302 | 3.59% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 19.3 | 17% | 261 | 3.36% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 16.3 | 13.1% | 201 | 2.07% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 9.6 | 7.4% | 113 | 1.34% |
| 70+ | 7 | 8.1 | 5.5% | 84 | 1.18% |
| All ages | 85 | 125.3 | 100% | 1532 | 2.37% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | 12306 | 27290 | 500 | 124 | 1013 |
| Jan 22 | 12384 | 27346 | 501 | 124 | 960 |
| Jan 23 | 12432 | 27406 | 501 | 124 | 843 |
| Jan 24 | 12489 | 27467 | 508 | 124 | 810 |
| Jan 25 | 12569 | 27524 | 510 | 125 | 797 |
| Jan 26 | 12656 | 27558 | 510 | 125 | 821 |
| Jan 27 | 12741 | 27633 | 510 | 125 | 851 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 8.0 | 8.9% | 76 | 1.4% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 8.9 | 13.4% | 114 | 2.1% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 11.4 | 13.6% | 116 | 2.56% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 11.4 | 15.9% | 135 | 2.49% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 11.6 | 15.3% | 130 | 2.61% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 10.0 | 11.9% | 101 | 1.49% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 8.6 | 11% | 94 | 1.48% |
| 70+ | 16 | 8.3 | 10% | 85 | 1.34% |
| All ages | 85 | 78.1 | 100% | 851 | 1.88% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | 30504 | 86808 | 920 | 151 | 4630 |
| Jan 22 | 30695 | 86965 | 923 | 151 | 4144 |
| Jan 23 | 30818 | 87121 | 928 | 151 | 3430 |
| Jan 24 | 31238 | 87422 | 929 | 151 | 3514 |
| Jan 25 | 31557 | 87690 | 931 | 151 | 3536 |
| Jan 26 | 31857 | 87945 | 931 | 151 | 3577 |
| Jan 27 | 32100 | 88098 | 931 | 151 | 3506 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 34 | 40.4 | 15% | 526 | 4.45% |
| 10-19 | 33 | 50.6 | 18.8% | 659 | 3.98% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 40.6 | 15.4% | 541 | 2.54% |
| 30-39 | 44 | 48.3 | 17.7% | 621 | 4.57% |
| 40-49 | 42 | 36.0 | 13.2% | 462 | 3.4% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 26.9 | 9.7% | 339 | 2.39% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 15.3 | 5.8% | 205 | 1.44% |
| 70+ | 15 | 11.6 | 4.3% | 152 | 1.17% |
| All ages | 243 | 269.7 | 100% | 3506 | 2.97% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | 108672 | 477865 | 2473 | 455 | 29998 |
| Jan 22 | 109453 | 478618 | 2480 | 456 | 29736 |
| Jan 23 | 110135 | 479382 | 2482 | 456 | 28236 |
| Jan 24 | 110828 | 480084 | 2488 | 456 | 27077 |
| Jan 25 | 111765 | 481016 | 2490 | 456 | 27153 |
| Jan 26 | 112768 | 482074 | 2493 | 456 | 15308 |
| Jan 27 | 113727 | 483068 | 2498 | 456 | 12053 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 194 | 162.3 | 17.2% | 2070 | 3.44% |
| 10-19 | 153 | 135.0 | 16.9% | 2034 | 2.86% |
| 20-29 | 149 | 129.3 | 15.6% | 1879 | 1.81% |
| 30-39 | 178 | 153.0 | 17.7% | 2130 | 2.78% |
| 40-49 | 122 | 119.3 | 14% | 1685 | 2.57% |
| 50-59 | 69 | 81.7 | 9.2% | 1108 | 1.69% |
| 60-69 | 59 | 55.6 | 5.8% | 695 | 1.27% |
| 70+ | 35 | 35.3 | 3.7% | 446 | 0.91% |
| All ages | 959 | 871.9 | 100% | 12053 | 2.2% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | 1457173 | 4021270 | 58877 | 12225 | 198685 |
| Jan 22 | 1464634 | 4028217 | 58955 | 12241 | 188208 |
| Jan 23 | 1469998 | 4033720 | 59031 | 12252 | 168472 |
| Jan 24 | 1477042 | 4039997 | 59149 | 12269 | 157321 |
| Jan 25 | 1485856 | 4047852 | 59243 | 12279 | 150598 |
| Jan 26 | 1495132 | 4055897 | 59361 | 12289 | 114806 |
| Jan 27 | 1503420 | 4063408 | 59437 | 12291 | 103768 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1072 | 1055.9 | 12.5% | 12969 | 2.02% |
| 10-19 | 1126 | 1189.7 | 15.4% | 15938 | 2.11% |
| 20-29 | 1179 | 1143.9 | 14.1% | 14671 | 1.94% |
| 30-39 | 1513 | 1429.1 | 17.3% | 17911 | 2.37% |
| 40-49 | 1234 | 1184.6 | 14.4% | 14958 | 2.14% |
| 50-59 | 970 | 1018.7 | 12.2% | 12648 | 1.55% |
| 60-69 | 677 | 703.7 | 8.2% | 8508 | 1.12% |
| 70+ | 507 | 519.1 | 5.8% | 6061 | 0.95% |
| All ages | 8288 | 8251.9 | 100% | 103768 | 1.78% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-19 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13387"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges